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3. BULGARIA
Table 3.1:
Main features of country forecast - BULGARIA
2007 Annual percentage change
bn BGN Curr. prices % GDP 92-04 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP at previous year prices 56.5 100.0 0.9 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.4 1.8 2.5
Private consumption 39.1 69.1 1.6 6.1 9.5 5.3 5.0 1.2 2.4
Public consumption 9.1 16.2 -3.2 2.5 -1.3 3.1 1.9 2.2 2.2
Gross fixed capital formation 16.8 29.8 - 23.3 14.7 21.7 19.0 1.8 2.9
of which : equipment - - - - - - - - -
Exports (goods and services) 35.8 63.4 - 8.5 8.7 5.2 5.2 0.1 3.4
Imports (goods and services) 48.3 85.5 - 13.1 14.0 9.9 7.7 0.5 3.3
GNI at previous year prices (GDP deflator) 55.6 98.4 - 5.9 2.7 7.2 6.3 2.1 2.8
Contribution to GDP growth : Domestic demand - 9.5 10.0 9.9 9.4 1.8 2.9
Stockbuilding - 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.2
Foreign balance - -4.1 -5.4 -4.9 -3.3 -0.4 -0.6
Employment -0.4 2.7 3.3 2.8 3.2 0.9 0.7
Unemployment rate (a) 15.1 10.1 9.0 6.9 6.0 6.3 6.4
Compensation of employees/head - 5.9 7.4 17.9 19.0 10.9 9.0
Unit labour costs whole economy - 2.4 4.4 14.2 15.4 9.9 7.1
Real unit labour costs - -1.3 -3.8 5.9 4.8 3.2 2.7
Savings rate of households (b) - - - - - - -
GDP deflator 53.2 3.8 8.5 7.9 10.1 6.5 4.3
Harmonised index of consumer prices - 6.0 7.4 7.6 12.0 5.4 4.8
Terms of trade of goods - -2.2 5.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.8 1.3
Trade balance (c) -6.2 -20.2 -22.0 -25.5 -27.4 -24.0 -23.5
Current account balance (c) -3.8 -11.5 -18.6 -22.5 -24.7 -20.8 -19.6
Net lending(+) or borrowing(-) vis-à-vis ROW (c) -3.8 -10.6 -17.9 -21.3 -23.3 -19.1 -17.6
General government balance (c) - 1.9 3.0 0.1 3.2 2.0 2.0
Cyclically-adjusted budget balance (c) - 1.2 2.2 -0.8 2.2 2.1 2.8
Structural budget balance (c) - 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.8
General government gross debt (c) - 29.2 22.7 18.2 13.8 12.2 10.7
(a) Eurostat definition. (b) gross saving divided by gross disposable income. (c) as a percentage of GDP.
Note : Contributions to GDP growth may not add up due to statistical discrepancies.
Interim forecast, January 2009
18
Real GDP growth in the first three quarters of
2008 remained robust at an average of 7% y-o-y,
driven by buoyant domestic demand and very
strong investment. However, financing constraints
and lower returns have started to affect FDI,
inducing a noticeable decline in nominal terms.
Yet, buoyant credit growth has sustained both
investment and private consumption, which have
grown at around 19% and 5% respectively. The
growth contribution of the external sector has
become less negative, reflecting accelerating
exports and slowing imports. All in all, GDP is
estimated to have grown by almost 6½% in 2008.
Economic activity in Bulgaria is expected to slow
substantially in 2009, as weaker external demand
and tighter credit conditions take their toll on
exports and domestic demand. Real GDP growth is
projected to decrease to around 1¾% in 2009 and
to recover only slightly in 2010. Due to expected
lower FDI inflows, investment growth should slow
sharply to around 1¾% this year and 3% next. The
projected considerable deceleration in wage and
employment growth and more moderate credit
growth would lead to a deceleration of private
consumption expenditure. Driven by lower
external and domestic demand, growth of both
exports and imports is set to decelerate markedly.
As import volumes and prices are expected to fall,
the trade deficit should narrow, albeit gradually.
The very high current account deficit should thus
fall below 20% of GDP.
Employment growth is expected to decline
substantially in 2009-2010. Despite lower
productivity growth, the more moderate projected
nominal wage increases will lead to a deceleration
in nominal unit labour costs. With global
commodity prices falling and nominal wages
growing at a slower pace, HICP inflation could
decline to below 6% in 2009. However, relatively
high wage growth should continue to weigh on
profit prospects.
Despite the expenditure-reducing contingency
buffer in the budget, the general government
surplus is projected at around 2% of GDP in 2009,
below the official target of 3% of GDP. The lowerthan-
budgeted surplus reflects a less favourable
growth scenario and a less tax-intensive
composition of growth. The public debt level
should continue to decline to below 11% of GDP.
Това да не е някой собственик на ипотекиран панел (като гледам сградата) 
