Julius Написал:
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> Uraa Написал:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Разликата м/у отделния човек и държавата е че
> държавата може
> > да си напечата тези приблизително 19.5% и
> така да
> > обезцени с 19.5% българския лев.
> > Не знам какъв е бил дефицита за предишните
> години,
> > но от това, което виждам нищо чудно
> съотношението
> > лев евро реално да не е 1.95 към 1.00 а доста
> повече.
>
> Глупости!
>
> Докато сме в паричен съвет /борд/ или к'вото ще да
> е там - се печатат левове не повече от
> равностойността /по установения курс/ на
> притежаваната резервна валута! И когато има такъв
> дефицитит, се покрива по два начина:
>
> 1. Ако курса е фиксиран, отрицателната разлика се
> отразява в намаляване на валутнитре резерви /със
> същата сума/!
>
> 2. Ако курса е плаващ, отрицателната разлика се
> отразява под формата на поевтиняване на
> официалната валута /като обезценката обикновено НЕ
> Е със същата сума - примерно 2 пъти повече левове
> - точно 2 пъти по-евтина валута /3.91.../,
> тъй като винаги има намеса от страна на ЦБ в
> подкрепа на местната валута/!
>
> п.с.
> 1. При нас курса е фиксиран.;
> 2. Aко е вярно че покритието на левовете в
> обръщение е НЕ 100%, а 180%...
> 3. Има известна разлика между платежен баланс и
> текуща сметка!
Julius,
Много ще се радвам ако се окажеш прав. Дано този дефицит да е покрит я с евро я със злато или друг някакъв финансов "инструмент".
" Widening CA Deficit
Bulgaria's 2007 current-account deficit widened to a 10-year record of 21.6 percent of GDP as imports surged in the first year of the Balkan country's European Union membership.
The 12-month deficit widened to 6.17 billion euros ($9 billion) last year from 3.9 billion euros in 2006, when it was 15.7 percent or GDP, according to data released by the Sofia-based central bank today. The gap expanded to 905.5 million euros in December, after a revised 725.3 million euros in November.
Access to the European single market and cheap lending have fueled consumer demand and imports after the country joined the European Union a year ago. The government, which expects the shortfall to be covered by foreign investment, wants to boost living standards and bring its $31.5 billion economy to EU levels.
The trade deficit widened 27 percent to 7.4 billion euros in last year, the central bank said. Annual exports rose 10.4 percent to 13.4 billion euros, while imports grew 15.6 percent to 20.8 billion euros.
Foreign direct investment in 2007 also reached a record of 5.7 billion euros and covered 92 percent of the current-account gap, the data showed. A year ago, 4.4 billion euros of FDI covered 111 percent of the deficit. The 2007 financial account almost doubled to a 9.4 billion-euro surplus from 5.2 billion euros in the previous year.
Overheating and Risk of Correction
``Strong economic growth has been accompanied with signs of overheating, increasing macroeconomic imbalances reflected in a widening external deficit, re-acceleration of bank credit growth,'' the European Commission said in a Feb. 13 report assessing Bulgaria's economy. ``Safeguarding macroeconomic stability'' requires continuation of tight fiscal policies, according to the commission.
Fitch Ratings on Jan. 31 lowered its credit rating outlooks for both Bulgaria and Romania to negative from stable, citing deteriorating economic imbalances in the two nations.
Bulgaria's record current-account gap and high lending growth have raised chances the economy may be hurt by ``external shocks,'' according to Moody's. On Feb. 5. It raised the Bulgaria's ``vulnerability'' to "medium" from "low" in February 2007.
Bulgaria is in a very similar position to the three Baltic states, since the currency - the lev is effectively pegged to the euro, so there is no way the currency can adjust to take up some of the tension created by the very high internal inflation. Meantime a declining population, long term lowest-low fertility and heavy out migration have left the countries rapidly growing economy extremely short of qualified workers, thus producing pressure to send wages onwards and upwards in ever increasing second round effects. The only real measure available to the Bulgarian government in this situation if the fiscal one, and the government has planned a budget surplus of 3 percent of GDP for this year in an attempt to drain liquidity from the economy. However given the size of the problem, its deep structural character, the availability of credit at rates of interest well below the annual inflation rate and the heavy stream of remittances from migrant workers strung out across the EU, it is really hard to see anyone getting a grip on this increasingly anarchic situation. However, given the presence of the currency pegs, I think it unlikely that the East European adjustment process will kick off in either the Baltics or Bulgaria, and my guess is the most probable initiator of the next stage of the process will be Hungary, and if not Hungary then Romania. Once the process gets under way, then the other aforementioned countires will - unfortunately - be left with no other alternative but to fold their ever more untenable positions.
............."
http://easterneuropeeconomy.blogspot.com/2008/02/bulgaria-inflation-january-2008.html
Дано да не спират чуждестранните инвестиции, че та са май спасителния пояс засега.
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