> Също така твърдеше че всъщност вдигането на
> цените на имотите в БГ ще форсира вдигане и на
> доходите, а не обратното. На мен ми се струваше че
> това е впрягане на каруцата пред коня. Сега обаче
> отново виждам че е прав.
Гениално....не знам защо Станишев не чете този форум...тука е рецептата за вдигане на заплатите. Ако цените стигнат 1 милион евро, заплатите ще са по 10К на месец, и ето Швеция подмината като малка гара.
В Австралия обаче нещо местните Бобевци нещо не могат да я приложат тази теория - вместо да им вдигат заплатите, шефовете ги гонят и прехвърлят производството в Тайланд и Китай, а цените падат.
>Това означава че днес той би струвал около 200 лева месечно при настояща лихва 6.5%,
>25 г. ипотека. Това е вноска която може да си позволи дори една самотно живееща >чистачка днешно време
Нещо съм изостанал от развитието на просперитета на чистачките....ако 200 лева е 30% от дохода на една чистачка, тя би трябвало да взема около 650-700 лева след всякакъв вид удръжки
"It is generally agreed that once 30 per cent of household income goes on mortgage repayments, the borrower has reached dangerous territory. "
Австралия заедно с Нова Зеландия бяха едни от първите страни където балона почна да се надува...и да спада. И почва обикновено от квартали подобни на Младост и т.н
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Borrowers burnt in the mortgage melee
MARGIN CALL
Michael West
November 11, 2006
LOW-doc, no-doc, half-a-doc loans. Ship it in. What's up, doc? Any-doc-will-do. Get rich quick. We-wouldn't-mind-a-doc-but-if-you-don't-have-one-on-you-right-now-just-sign-here.
You won't see it in Kew or Killara. And in Point Piper and Peppermint Grove the mansions are fetching record prices.
On the outskirts of Sydney and Melbourne, though, things are getting ugly. "For Sale" signs abound.
What they don't tell you is who's selling. The banks, you see, are telling the agents not to disclose the vendor - to not say a word. The bulk of these sales are mortgagee-in-possession jobs.
The banks are calling in their loans, folks. The credit binge is kaput and the waking hangover will be so bad the lawyers will be sorting it out.
Who will sue whom? Mortgage brokers, banks, non-bank lenders, lawyers, mortgage insurers, dodgy valuers. Pick a box.
Men of straw, the brokers will topple. The insurers will cry "exclusion clause", but what of the banks and other assorted credit spruikers? Did they exercise the required care, outsourcing their sales to spivvy operators who loaded up their prey with home equity withdrawal products while rates rose and household disposable incomes sank? They'll blame the brokers.
Mortgage brokers rate so low on those job-perception surveys that even newspaper journalists beat them. The only professional qualification required to flog mortgages is a cadetship in shaking hands and a five-word essay: "You can't lose, buying property."
You can't lose claiming "keeping interest rates low" either. Lose an election, that is, claiming you control the world economy. Out in the mortgage belts they believed it.
In housing, you won't encounter pesky things like decent regulation and reliable databases which burden other markets in equities, commodities and bonds. Not on your nelly. Property is the domain of "light touch" regulation.
No doubt doing its best to get the proletariat to rise up and foment communist revolution, an ABC crew toured the western Sydney arc from north to south last week. Its findings were disturbing. The bulk of house auctions were mortgagee-in-possession sales.
Agents, a breed customarily loath to talk down the price of a port-a-loo in a construction zone, said it was the worst they'd seen it: negative equity everywhere, locks changed, savings lost. One woman's story of being conned and losing the lot was so touching that even the hard-bitten techies behind the camera were getting teary.
One house in western Sydney suburb Fairfield, a three-bedroom weatherboard number, had just been passed in at auction for $279,000. The bank was the vendor. It had been sold for $560,000 just 18 months earlier.
After September 11, 2001, the cash rate dipped as low as 4.25 per cent, enticing all manner of sharks and shysters into a market vulnerable to regulatory indifference - residential property.
Even in 2002, as the pundits warned against monetary tightening, the Reserve Bank was warning that 18.5 per cent of low-income households were paying out 50 per cent of their income servicing their mortgage. It's higher now.
There have been eight rate rises since 2001, the latest coming this week, and even that won't be enough to contain inflation.
As home prices hit their zenith in 2003, the spruikers were still crying up, up, up. Noting that the latest credit product was a loan secured on the family car, a certain pundit forecast there would be "much weeping and gnashing of teeth". That prophecy is now coming to pass.
Next will be a big bumping up of family benefits heading into the next election, a bit of bad debt on the bank balance sheets, weakness in the retail sector and a slather of lawsuits against various scammers and unlicensed providers of financial advice - and their myriad accomplices.
